NBA. Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies
Привет,
Извините что на английском, написал пост в своем телеграм канале, переводить пока нет времени, но так хорошо написал, что решил и тут запостить.
Today I've got a great match up for you to look into.
Houston Rockets will go to play in Memphis and it is an interesting game because the predictive stats are going in line with what bookies hanged out, but the actual results look so much different and I think if you brave enough you can get a nice fat odd in.
So:
Rockets are quite stable in 2pt shots attempts and it matches Grizzlies conceeded 2pt attempts at 50-51 tries, if you look at the percentage of success of such shots you'll see that Rockets, when play away, are a bit better and tent to score 55% of their 2pt shots, meanwhile Grizzlies took a grip on the defence recently and not allowing oponents to do more than 48%, so I guess we shall expect something around 52% of accuracy here.
On a 3pt arch there is a slight difference between what Rockets normally shot (30-31 attempts) and what Grizzlies conceed (35-38 attempts), I guess if we put 33 attempts on 3 pointers we'd be about right.
Now here is a pickle:
Grizzlies are terrible in defence on the arch, they allowed more than 45% from there recently and you can't say the oponents were those famous ones to nail tripples.
The whole game comes to this question:Would Rockets be able to get more than their average 30-32% accuracy on 3pt line ?
Because if they do, and they do well (like 40%), they could even win the game.The last one to consider in Rockets points is the free throw shots, seem like Grizzles are not fouling more than 24 times a game, so we can rely Houston to fill the whole capacity. Percentage-wise texas team are very stable at the terrible level of 68% on the line.
All in all that gives us expected 99 points by Houston should they score 30% on 3pt arch or 108 points if they are 40% good there.
Lets look at Grizzles figures:
Grizzlies are also quite stable at 63 2pt attempts which Rockets will have to fulfil as they do not normally dictate the structure of the game. Houston have some terrible games in zone defence, sometime allowing 60-70% accuracy but generally hold oponents at 50%, this time their oponent is quite stable at 50-52% 2pt accuracy so we are happy to consider 51% there.
3pt story for Grizzlies fluctuates from opponentto opponent but I'm happy to take 34 attemps at 33% accuracy for them, its an industry standard if you let me say so.Lastly, the free throws are hanging at 21 attemps by Memphis and they either have a good night with 80% accuracy or bad night at 60%, it's 50% chance to have that one or another.
All in all we've got Memphis to score between 112 and 118 points depending how good they are on the line.
The interesting point here, that bookies put exact same line for the game, which looks like 104:114 as a final score, but as a matter of fact, Grizzlies only 2 times this season conceeded less than 106 points. That is 2 in 13 games. Also, Grizzlies are a low-scoring team this season as it stands by now. If you take 3 opening games away, they only once scored Over 108 in 10 games.
If you cross all these facts with one fat solid line it'd feel like 104:114 as the final score is possible but unlikely to happen. It feels to me that something like 107:110 looks rather more realistic.
Hence I suggest you take one of these picks:
Handicap Rockets +10 [1/1]
Grizzlies Under 115.5 [4/5]
Good luck and put your reaction of the post below, if you liked it!
