17 января 2015, 06:06 6 мин.

In Full Flux: Women's Australian Open Preview

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SATURDAY, JANUARY 17, 2015 /BY STEVE TIGNOR

We’ve had women’s majors where it felt like anyone could win. We’ve had others that felt sewn up by the top player before they began. Right now, though, coming into the Aussie Open, the women’s game feels like it’s in flux. Not transition, or anything so life-changing—just flux.

Right now no one, not even Serena Williams, can be called a lock, but there are plenty of people—from Simona Halep to Genie Bouchard to Agnieszka Radwanska to Caroline Wozniacki to Ana Ivanovic to Petra Kvitova—who are either knocking on the door, shaking things up, or otherwise making strides.

Melbourne will be the first test for all of them. Here’s a look at the cards—i.e., the draw—the women have been dealt to start.

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First Quarter

Whatever else may be happening in the WTA, Serena Williams remains the No. 1 player and the odds-on favorite for any major. But after her early defeat at the first three Slams last year, you can’t call her a mortal lock these days. If her 2014 told us anything, it’s that she’s more vulnerable early in the event than she is late. Who might be the one to give her a surprise run Down Under?

First we need to mention 24th-seeded Garbine Muguruza, the young Spanish player who knocked Serena off 6-2, 6-2 in Paris last year, as well as Alizé Cornet, the Frenchwoman who did the same to her at Wimbledon. Serena could face Muguruza in the fourth round and Cornet in the quarters. Neither of their wins were flukes, exactly, but I don’t think Serena would let them happen again.

Then there’s Elina Svitolina, the 26th seed and Serena’s potential third-round opponent. She’s 20, she’s fiery, she times the ball well on both sides, and she’s only going to get better. An upset is, if not in the making, within the realm of possibility.

How about Caroline Wozniacki? She retired with a wrist injury last week in Sydney, but she reached the final the previous week in Auckland. She comes in on the heels of a confidence-boosting second half of 2014, and she nearly made the final here in 2011. But Caro has a potentially tough opener in U.S. teen Taylor Townsend.

Speaking of tough openers, how about Victoria Azarenka vs. Sloane Stephens? Semifinal opponents here two years ago, neither is seeded this time. The winner will play the winner between Wozniacki and Townsend.

Also here: 2014 runner-up Dominika Cibulkova, 15th seed Jelena Jankovic, 25th seed Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, and comeback kid Vera Zvonareva. It’s a pretty fun section, all in all.

First-round matches to watch: Azarenka vs. Stephens; Wozniacki vs. Townsend; Cibulkova vs. Flipkens

Semifinalist: Wozniacki

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Second Quarter

Does it feel like there’s some—dare I say it—consistency to Kvitova’s game at the moment? Champion in Sydney, semifinalist in Shenzhen, she has started 2015 on an up note. Of course, as soon as you start to believe Kvitova has changed her up-and-down ways...

The No. 4 seed will start with a qualifier and face the winner of Vekic vs. Barthel; the next highest seed in her half is Andrea Petkovic. None of that sounds scary, but it’s not really a question of who Kvitova draws. It's how she herself plays that matters. If she makes the quarters, she is scheduled to face Radwanska; Kvitova has a 5-2 record against her, though Aga won their last match easily in Singapore.

First, though, we’ll get to see what else Radwanska might have up her sleeve, now that she’s working with Martina Navratilova. She opens against Kurumi Nara and could play Venus Williams in the fourth round.

Also here: Madison Keys, Sam Stosur, Aleksandra Krunic, Coco Vandeweghe

Sleeper: Ajla Tomljanovic. She beat Radwanska in their only meeting, in Paris last year. They could face off in the third round.

Semifinalist: Kvitova

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Third Quarter

Simona Halep is the top seed in this section, and while she has never been past the quarters at Melbourne Park, the slow hard courts there would seem to be a good fit for her dynamic baseline game. Her draw seems like a good fit as well: The three other seeds in her half are Sara Errani, Sabine Lisicki, and Anastasia Pavluchenkova.

Ivanovic, top seed on the other side, looked good in reaching the final in Brisbane last week, but she may have a little more to contend with in the early going than Halep. Ana could play Belinda Bencic in the third round, and the tour’s premier Grand Slam upset artist, Ekaterina Makarova, in the fourth.

Also here: Karolina Pliskova, runner-up in Sydney

Sleeper: Makarova

Semifinalist: Halep

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Fourth Quarter

Maria Sharapova stomped through the draw in Melbourne seven years ago; if the 27-year-old is ever going to win it again, this might be her best chance. Two women who beat her easily in finals here, Serena and Azarenka, are on the other side of the draw, and neither appears to be unbeatable at the moment. Sharapova also opened her season with a title in Brisbane.

In Melbourne, she’ll start against a qualifier, and could face Sorana Cirstea in the second round—they’ve played once, and Sharapova won easily. The three seeds in her half are Lucie Safarova, Zarina Diyas, and Shuai Peng. Sharapova is 9-2 against them combined.

Who might be waiting for her in the quarters? Eugenie Bouchard, a semifinalist in 2014, is the top seed on the other side, Kerber is second, Suarez Navarro third, and Kuznetsova fourth. Bouchard, who opens against 98th-ranked Anna-Lena Friedsam of Germany, seems ripe for a sophomore slump. But at the U.S. Open last year she showed that, even without her best, she can survive multiple matches at majors.

Sleeper: Safarova

First-round match to watch: Caroline Garcia vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova

Semifinalist: Sharapova

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Semifinals: Kvitova d. Wozniacki; Sharapova d. Halep

Final: Sharapova d. Kvitova