6 мин.

Сингапур: Варианты в группах

546

Автор: Steph Myles

WTA Tour Finals – White Group scenarios galore!

SINGAPORE – The fate of the players in the white group is somewhat less made of calculus than those of the Red Group, which theoretically could come down to games won.

Wozniacki will play Kvitova, while Sharapova will play Radwanska in the final round-robin matches.

Scenario #1: Wozniacki and Radwanska win

Result: Wozniacki finishes 3-0, Radwanska 2-1. They qualify.

Scenario #2: Kvitova and Sharapova win

Result: Wozniacki and Kvitova both finish 2-1. They qualify (and Kvitova finishes 1 and Wozniacki 2 based on this head-to-head).

Scenario #3: Wozniacki and Sharapova win

Result: Wozniacki (3-0) qualifies, the other three finish 1-2.

-If Sharapova wins in two sets, and Wozniacki beats Kvitova in two sets, Sharapova gets the second spot

-If Sharapova wins in two sets, and Wozniacki beats Kvitova in three sets, Sharapova and Kvitova are tied and Kvitova wins on the head-to-head.

Scenario #4: Kvitova and Radwanska win

Result: Sharapova is 0-3, the other three are tied at 2-1.

So it comes down to sets won.

If Kvitova beats Wozniacki in two sets, and Radwanska beats Sharapova in two sets, Kvitova and Radwanska are tied with .666 set-winning percentages, with Wozniacki at .5714. So Kvitova and Radwanska make it.

If Kvitova beats Wozniacki in two sets, and Radwanska beats Sharapova in three sets, Kvitova is in with a .6666 winning percentage. Wozniacki and Radwanska would be tied with a .5714 set-winning percentage. Wozniacki gets in on their head-to-head.

If Kvitova beats Wozniacki in three sets, and Radwanska wins in straight sets, Radwanska (.666) and Wozniacki (.625) are in, Kvitova the odd woman out at .5714.

If Kvitova beats Wozniacki in three sets, and Radwanska beats Sharapova in three sets. Wozniacki is in with a .625 percentage. Kvitova and Radwanska would be tied at .5714, and Radwanska would get in on their head-to-head.

This entry was posted in Analysis, WTA Tour finals.

 

WTA Finals – Red Group scenarios galore!!!!

October 23, 2014 Steph Myles

SINGAPORE – There are plenty of scenarios as Genie Bouchard’s Red Group prepares to play its final matches.

We double- and triple-checked, but it’s still possible the math is wrong.

But here’s our best effort.

In the final round, Bouchard (0-2) will play Serena Williams (1-1) Thursday, and Simona Halep (2-0) will play Ana Ivanovic (1-1) Friday.

Two of the scenarios are fairly straightforward.

1) The simplest: Halep beats Ivanovic, and Serena beats Bouchard

Result: Halep and Williams qualify

2) Ivanovic beats Halep, and Bouchard beats Williams

Result: Halep and Ivanovic both end up 2-1, and they qualify.

3) Halep beats Ivanovic, and Bouchard beats Serena

-Halep is in.

-If Ivanovic goes three sets and Serena loses in straight sets, Ivanovic is in.

-If Serena goes three sets, she qualifies no matter what Ivanovic does.

But …

If Ivanovic and Serena both lose in straight sets then the two, and Bouchard, are tied with 1-2 records, and 33% set-winning percentages (all will have won 2 out of 6 sets played).

So then, it comes down to percentage of games won to determine who will be the second player out of the red group to join Halep.

If both Ivanovic and Serena lose, but both win the maximum possible number of games (that would be 7-6, 7-6), Serena would edge Ivanovic out on a few hairs, .43333333 to .4324524.

If both were to lose 6-0, 6-0, Ivanovic would win the percentage battle. In between, it’s all about the math.

Here’s how Bouchard could sneak in there:

Her over-under with Serena is between 7-8 games. – i.e. if she limits Williams to seven games or less over the two sets, she squeezes past her. But then she has to hope Ivanovic wins no more than five or six games against Halep. If she allows Serena three games or less, she would qualify regardless of how many games Williams and Ivanovic win in a straight-sets defeat.

And, finally …

4) Ivanovic beats Halep, and Serena beats Bouchard

Result: If Halep takes a set in defeat, she’s in, no matter what.

-If Ivanovic wins in straight sets and Serena needs three sets, Ivanovic is in.

-If Serena wins in straight sets and Ivanovic needs three sets, Serena is in

But …

-If both Ivanovic and Serena win in straight sets (meaning Halep would lose in straight sets, obviously), then the three are tied with 2-1 records and .666667 winning percentages on the sets.

So then, it comes down to winning percentages on games. And that’s where Halep, who lost so few games in her first two matches, has a big edge.

Even if Halep were to lose to Ivanovic 6-0, 6-0, her games-winning percentage would be .558

If Serena, in defeating Bouchard, even loses ONE game, her percentage would fall below that, and she’d be out.

To sum up? Serena will be rooting HARD for Ivanovic to beat Halep. And she’s going to have to wait until Friday to see what happens there.

Got that straight? The white group, by comparison, could end up simpler. But we’ll see.

If Agnieszka Radwanska beats her pal Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets Thursday to go 2-0, she qualifies. If she wins in three sets, she would make it if Petra Kvitova beats Maria Sharapova.

If Wozniacki wins (and goes 2-0), regardless of how many sets it takes, she’ll make it if Sharapova beats Kvitova.

As for the second spot? Still up for grabs. More math. :-)

Добавил таблицу, которую подготовили SI:

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